How a History Scientist Votes
For Prosperity and Stability
WHAT IS HISTORY SCIENCE?
Only recently has mathematics been applied to history to understand the complexities of human societal evolution. This is known as Cliodynamics and Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist, has been a pioneer in the field for some time now. It uses a huge database known as the Seshat Global History Databank.
Charles Meynier WikiMedia Commons
It was founded in 2011 to bring together the most comprehensive body of knowledge about human history in one place, collecting what is known about the social and political organization of human societies to track how civilizations have evolved over time.
The database includes such things at stature (the height of individuals), incidents of violence of various magnitude, population statistics and wealth distribution. Stature, for example, can be measured from the femur — the biggest bone in the body and most likely to survive decomposition — going far back into the past and covering virtually every place of human habitation. But this data is scattered and bringing it all together is very time-consuming. Population statistics can be gathered from census data as far as they are available, such as the English Doomsday book and there are (less convenient) ways to estimate human numbers and their condition in a societal or geographical unit.
The insights from this information gives us some idea of how we can avoid the disintegrative paths that civilizations have routinely followed.
THE KEYS TO PROSPERITY AND STABILITY
In various podcasts, Peter Turchin emphasizes the importance of shutting down the Wealth Pump. This alleviates Popular Immizeration and reduces Elite Overproduction. The Wealth Pump siphons profits and capital gains to the upper echelons of society (the elites). Tax laws and incentives to speculators facilitate this. This leads to a top-heavy spread of wealth, where more hardship is spread among the masses while the tiny fraction of the populace that are uber-wealthy grows. Credentials are another pathway to the privileged life, most notably law degrees. Business — self-made or otherwise — is another pathway. When there are too many elites, competition for the limited number of positions of authority becomes more fierce. It’s like a game of musical chairs where the number of players increase, but the number of chairs remain unchanged. The chairs are typically seats of power in the political and bureaucratic apparatus. There is more flexibility in the number of possible CEOs, but that is limited by the amount of business a consumer base can support.
When this disintegrative path is unfolding, such as is happening across the West, you get counter-elites like Donald Trump who break the rules of the game. The 2016 Republican candidates debates in which Donald Trump scandalized and delighted the audience with his answer to an accusation about the women he has mistreated is a perfect example, “Only Rosie MacDonald.”
Population growth can play an important role in this. Periods of disintegration are generally preceded by a period of integration and prosperity, which allows the population to grow. As it grows, there is less to go around and if the wealth pump is turned on, even less is available to the masses. Technology can introduce relief and elasticity to this dynamic as witness the population boom of that past 80 years. Much of that was due to unlocking energy in fossil fuels. However, currently, we are also witnessing the effects of that huge population on the planet which is consuming (very unevenly) far faster than the ecological system can reabsorb the by products and waste. It is also producing far faster than the planet can regenerate what is being extracted from it. We are, in other words, in overshoot.
Although history scientist Peter Turchin doesn’t address global warming, it is in fact a part of the climatic environments that he says have allowed civilizations to rise or fall. For example, he recognizes that the Holocene has been an unprecedented period of climatic stability that has allowed the flourishing of human endeavour culminating in agriculture that allowed for civilization and then industrialization. Also, there have been more than one ‘ Year Without A Summer ‘ due to volcanic eruptions the have caused crop failures. Nonetheless, global warming is something of an oversight of Turchin’s, so I am including it here because even though it is a multi-generational issue, we overlook it at our peril.
In brief, a history scientist and ecological economist interested in steering its country back to stability and prosperity would be looking for politicians and elites who support slowing and even reversing the wealth pump and abandoning growth economics in favour of steady state economics in order to adjust to a sustainable ciivilization.
DO YOU HAVE A CHOICE?
You have probably already realized that the priorities a history scientist has going to the polls are not reflected in politics. So, let’s look at what is preventing those priorities from being offered.
Shutting down the wealth pump and post growth economics seem like very leftist policies. And this is true in as much as economic justice and degrowth are most often trumpeted by the Greens. But let me come back to that.
Both major parties in Australia are committed to growing GDP. Were they to adopt GPI ( General Progress Indicator) as a measure of success, things would be very different. To achieve a good GPI, the wealth pump would have to be slowed down and immigration reduced. The ALP’s welfare policy is undone by their dedication to population and economic growth. The Liberals might do better were they the party of the little people in between big unions and business as Menzies conceved, but they sold their souls to self-serving elites a long ago. By the way, one might expect the agrarian-based National Party to be aware of limited carrying capacity (as Senator Gerard Rennick is, having grown up on a farm) but they are not advocates of a grand uptake of regenerative agriculture and steady state economics.
The Australian Greens’ degrowth economic sympathies and environment policies are cancelled out by their open borders, uncapped immigration policy. This contradiction has its roots in guilt pride. They share a similar platform to their counterparts in Germany, where an election was held the other day. Angela Merkle is sometimes referred to as Germany’s first Green Chancellor Ralph Schoellhammer ‘s commentary ( at 20:00 — Fire At Will) on the German Greens eloquently explains why they are in fact the unintended enemy of the degrowth movement:
They turned off some of the best nuclear power plants in the world for ideological reasons. Because the Green movement was never so much concerned about finding ways of limiting negative impact on the environment while at the same time maintaining living standards and prosperity. For them, living standards and prosperity were always part of the problem. The ideology is — I know this sounds harsh but it’s true if you look at the history of the movement- was [sic] always that human beings are the problem. This is why they talk about and continue talking about the problem of overpopulation when in fact, with the exception of certain areas of the globe, the world is running out of human beings.
He goes on to say U.N. projections are for population to peak at 2050, possible even 2040, “so we do not have an overpopulation problem”. This ignores the measures we have of how well the planet is currently coping with 8+ billion of us, consuming (so unevenly) as we are. There are about 70,000 people added to the planet every year. We are definitely in overshoot.
Turning off perfectly good nuclear power plants and dismantling them is not degrowth to my mind. It ‘s imprudent, a waste of embedded carbon in those facilities and a disservice to Germans who are now in energy precarity. It reminds me of planned obsolescence. There is a similar argument for keeping ICE vehicles on the road as long as they don’t require too much maintenance. In Australia, we haven’t expended anything on nuclear power as Dutton says we should. It would be far more prudent to stop immigration.
But the issue for the Greens has always been that
the West has to atone for their sinful past, so they WANT impoverishment and this is also the reason why they’re so well represented in the so-called Degrowth movement.
The German Greens may argue that degrowth is not impoverishment of the masses or that it is not their intention. But add multiculturalism to it and it’s hard to believe they respect the average German. Also, as part of the ‘traffic light coalition’ (with the red Social Democratic Party SPD & yellow Free Democratic Party FDP) they put Germany into an energy crisis and the economy has been in recession for two years.
In Australia similar policies have seen energy prices rise so much Labor governments have been handing out huge rebates (up to $1,000 in Queensland). Transitioning to renewables was never going to be cheap or easy — especially not with the wealth pump in high gear. Now, in Australia, there is more skepticism about climate change and renewables than ever, especially to the right of centre. More and more people have lost faith in our collective ability to respond to climate change and are putting their pockets first. It’s very frustrating for a conservative conservationist like me to see this.
Politics across the spectrum misses the point, because they’re too busy either moralizing about immigration and multiculturalism or ignoring the wealth pump and committing to the mantra that GDP growth is prosperity. This is what state capture looks like.
INEQUALITY RECOGNIZED
The good news is that outside politics, concern about inequality being at an all-time extreme is widespread ( Al Jazeera, ABC Radio National):
Money is flowing out of poor economies, in debt servicing, when it should be flowing in.
International wealth redistribution is certainly a better solution than international migration. However, it is collective action through the nation state’s administrative apparatus that will ultimately make a difference domestically.
Not much has changed: The powerful make decisions; the marginalised pay the price.
That dynamic is not likely to change — collective action has to include some of the powerful. That collective will not include poor people who vote against their own interests to maintain hope of becoming uber wealthy. The media has done it’s work on making them the allies of shortsighted opportunists.
There are signs of a broad spectrum alliance. They’re not railing against elites. They have realistic, achievable equality goals. The conversation is not skewed towards income inequality and ignoring asset inequality, which is the basis of the wealth pump. Higher income tax on the higher earners will do little to change the situation. Inheritance tax and curbing speculation needs to be included.
In 2023, Think Forward was a founding member of Australia’s National Coalition for Intergenerational Fairness
Some billionaires want to pay higher taxes. In Australia, people like Matt Barrie, Dick Smith and Bruce Buchannan are the kind of wealthy philanthropists who could turn the tide on selfish opportunism.
WHAT’S A HISTORY SCIENTIST TO DO AT THE BALLOT BOX?
The choices at this year’s federal election are dismal, which is why I’ll be voting strategically. Soon, however, I will post a Leader Board of candidates’ and parties’ policies in the three key areas I’ve mentioned: GDP Growth, Wealth Distribution & Environment. So far, I’ve identified two parties that have some potential, if they’re available in your area: Sustainable Australia Party and People First Party.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on the elites calling for higher taxes.
Finally, don’t forget to be the change you want to see. Achieving a high quality of life that adds very little to the stresses of society and environment goes a long way. 90% of my assets are in my debt-free sustainable home and garden, which provides me a very modest income that keeps me independent of government welfare. I don’t speculate or accumulate — in fact I’m heading (inevitably) in the opposite direction. And it’s liberating.
Originally published at http://equanimity.blog on February 25, 2025.
