I hesitate to push back on some of the things you've written here because I agree wholeheartedly with the thrust of it and many of the details. It's just some of the generalizations. Few people might believe this, including the Russians themselves, but they can survive without their former USSR states. And their demographic 'free fall' has a silver lining. It's called degrowth. The health problems are largely to do with inequality. A frozen tundra with non-arable land? Climate change is opening up the arctic as sea lane.

That's why egotistical patriotism is so counter-productive. Another reason is that it's unlikely playing the bully will secure their presence long term in these neighbouring states.