The 2025 Federal Election Gets Started
The Parties Trying To Grab Us All
The Liberal Party Kicks Off The Election Campaign
Peter Dutton got in early this week and spoke at several campaign launches in crucial seats. The seat of Chisholm in Melbourne where I went to school is one of the most marginal seats in the country after recent electoral boundary changes, possibly as little as 0.1%. One fifth of its population is Chinese now and in 2019 it elected the first Chinese-born member to parliament (Gladys Liu, LP) who ran against Taiwanese-born Jennifer Yang ( ABC).
The Liberal Party appears to have copied the New Zealand conservative National Party’s slogan, ‘Get Back On Track’, with which it won a decisive victory against the Labour Party in 2023. So far, the Opposition Leader’s strategy is to put out policy feelers such as lower immigration, only to backtrack because he isn’t committed enough to figure out how to manage the economic consequences over the long term.
Three Year Terms
Earlier this month the Prime Minister was asked when he’d announce the election date. He responded that he thought we should have fixed four year terms. What do you think? Does it seem too soon since the last election? There is widespread sympathy for fixed terms among politicians and the public, to make it fairer — the incumbent could not time the election to its own advantage. Professor Twomey did a great Constitutional Clarion video on this, explaining that the problem with four year terms is that they don’t synchronize with the six year terms of Senators. Without changing Senate terms, separate elections would be necessary. Eight years seems an inordinately lengthy time for Senators who sometimes become unaccountable to anyone. I asked her opinion about fixed three year terms and she said there would be little support from the parties because they favor longer terms. I suspect fixed three year terms has widespread public support and it certainly would be a simpler fix than four year terms. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
Balance of Power
With many punters predicting a hung parliament, the balance of power is in the eye of many a small party and independent candidate, in both houses.
The House of Representatives
In the House of Representatives, there are a whopping 18 members on the crossbench; mostly independents. The drift away from major parties continued last election, with only 10% of seats decided on primary (first preference) votes. There are hardly any safe seats left across the country ( APH). All of them are up for election. There are 29 parties registered with the AEC.
The Senate
In the Senate, there are 21 members on the crossbench, six of them independents (interestingly none of them from NSW or SA). Half of the Senators’ terms are due to expire, as is usually the case in a federal election year. Whatever date the election is held (the PM’s captain’s pick), the Senators’ terms expire in June and new or re-elected (there’s no limit) Senators take their seats from the 1st July. Those not up for re-election include Pauline Hanson (PHON), Lidia Thorpe (IND), David Pocock (IND) and Jacinta Price (CLP). Those on the line include Malcolm Roberts (PHON), Sarah Hanson-Young (AG) and Jackie Lambie (JLN)
Most minor parties aim for the Senate first, because it’s easier to win seat with the proportional representative voting system. So far, I’ve heard of former LNP Senator Gerrard Rennick’s People First Party, The Good Party, Democracy First, Sustainable Australia Party, and the Citizens Party of Australia. Of course there are many more.
Is Something Brewing in the Background?
Meanwhile, in the background Clive Palmer is trying to grab every trademark the Teals may have hoped to use and Pauline Hanson has been seen dining with Gina Rhinehart in Thailand ( The West Report). “Her One Nation Party is cozying up to billionaires like Rinehart and Clive Palmer, pushing anti-green policies that benefit the elite while working-class Australians foot the bill”. The same betrayal of native born people by counter elites is happening in the USA, as Musk goes head-to-head with the MAGA base in a stoush over H-1B (skilled) visas. Personally, I’m glad to see Pauline Hanson finally forming alliances instead of being divisive. I’m resigned to the fact there will always be elites. We ordinary people have to use what little power we have. Thank goodness we’re in a relatively open society that resembles something like a democracy. We have to play them off one another to achieve a steady state economy and society in balance with the limits of the planet.
Fewer voters are committed to a political party than ever before and major party primary votes are declining across the Western democracies, except perhaps in the U.S.A.. Some voters are drifting to either end of the traditional political spectrum. Some are becoming more hardcore supporters of their usual party. Others, like me, are floating away from that left/right dichotomy all together. The realists among us would agree that no party is going to be a perfect match. For me, none of the major parties come close to satisfactory on the important issues. So who will you vote for?? Please comment below.
Strategic Voting
I’ll be voting strategically to get a hung parliament and MPs on as thin a margin as possible. how to do this.
Originally published at http://equanimity.blog on January 15, 2025.
